08.08.2019

POWERFUL POSITIONS STUDIO (A)

Reputation destruction not regarded as Cumm HBO Profit dollar '000, 500 Probability ≤x 0 0% 3 completely Movie Profit \$ '000, 000 zero Cumm Probability ≤x % 0

-\$30m E

0. 4 Not really on Schedule

Associated Probability

Stop Production

(A) 0. 75*\$60m = -\$45m

28%

Continue Production

(B) \$30m - \$60m sama dengan -\$30m

28%

\$3. 9m B

zero. 3 Disappointment 0. six Morgan Blows

(C) \$35m -\$60m sama dengan -\$25m

13% -30 28

\$3. 48m D

Create Movie

\$26. 5m A

0. 6th On Schedule

zero. 2 Successful

(D) \$180m-\$60m = \$120m

8% -25 41

zero. 5 Hit

(E) \$80m-\$60m = \$20m

21% -5 15% 10 15% 71 56

\$2. 5m C

0. a few McManus Directs

0. a few Hit

(F) \$45m-\$35m = \$10m

zero. 5 Humble Disappointment

(G) \$30m-\$35m sama dengan -\$5m

20

92

one hundred twenty

HBO Package Office

95

100%

(H) \$3m

(A) EMV Measurements: EMVa = (-\$25*0. 3)+(\$120*0. 2)+(\$20*0. 5) = \$26. 5m EMVb = (-\$30*0. 4)+ (\$26. 5*0. 6) = \$3. 9m EMVc = (\$10*0. 5) + (-\$5*0. 5) = \$2. 5m EMVd = (\$3. 9*0. 7) + (\$2. 5*0. 3) = \$3. 48m Based upon the EMV calculations, High Places Studio can go ahead and produce the movie in order to maximize profit certainly not considering jeopardizing company popularity

Information on if Morgan encourage to direct the Chumbera on Rye -\$30m Electronic Stop Creation 0. four Not as scheduled Continue Development

(A) zero. 75*\$60m = -\$45m

(B) \$30m -- \$60m = -\$30m

\$3. 9m W

Information says Morgan is going to direct

zero. 3 Letdown

(C) \$35m -\$60m = -\$25m

0. 7

\$3. 63m D

With Information

\$26. 5m A

zero. 6 On Schedule

0. two Blockbuster

(D) \$180m-\$60m = \$120m

zero. 5 Hit

\$2. 5m C

0. 3

Data says Morgan will not immediate

(E) \$80m-\$60m = \$20m (F) \$45m-\$35m = \$10m

0. five Hit

\$3m F

McManus directs

zero. 5 Simple Disappointment

(G) \$30m-\$35m = -\$5m (H) \$3m

HBO

No Data

(I) \$3. 48m

(d)(i) EMVd sama dengan (\$3. 9*0. 7) & (\$3*0. 3) = \$3. 63m EMV with information concerning whether Morgan will accept to direct the Tuna upon Rye =\$3. 63m EMV without information about whether Morgan will accept to direct film production company =\$3. 48m Cost of best information =\$150, 000. 00 Conclusion Laura may seek information on whether Morgan as well available to immediate the Rondalla on Rye movie Yet , if data says he can not be around, Laura is going or the HBO box workplace option

Information about whether Morgan will complete film punctually

0. a few Disappointment

(C) \$35m -\$60m = -\$25m

\$26. 5m A

Data says Morgan will finish film on time

0. 2 Blockbuster

(D) \$180m-\$60m sama dengan \$120m

0. 6

\$17. 1m G

With Details

(E) \$80m-\$60m sama dengan \$20m

\$2. 5m C

0. 4

Information says Morgan will not complete film on time

zero. 5 Hit

\$3m F

McManus redirects

(F) \$45m-\$35m = \$10m

0. 5 Modest Frustration

(G) \$30m-\$35m = -\$5m (H) \$3m

HBO

No Information

(I) \$3. 48m

(d)(ii) EMVd = (\$26. 5*0. 6) + (\$3*0. 4) = \$17. 1m EMV with information whether Morgan will certainly complete film on time sama dengan \$17. 1m EMV without having information on whether Morgan can complete film =\$3. forty eight Cost of perfect information, EVPI = \$13, 620, 1000. 00

Information concerning whether Morgan will accept to direct and can complete film on time

zero. 3 Dissatisfaction

(A) \$35m -\$60m sama dengan -\$25m

\$26. 5m A

Information says Morgan will certainly direct and film and on time

0. 2 Successful

(B) \$180m-\$60m = \$120m

0. 42

\$12. 87m D

With Information

zero. 5 Hit

0. 28 will direct but not finish

film on time

\$3m Data says Morgan B

McManus directs

\$2. 5m C

(C) \$80m-\$60m = \$20m (D) \$45m-\$35m = \$10m

0. 5 Hit

zero. 5 Humble Disappointment

(E) \$30m-\$35m sama dengan -\$5m (F) \$3m

HBO

0. several

Information says Morgan will not direct Rondalla on Rye

\$3m F

\$2. 5m E

McManus directs

zero. 5 Struck

(G) \$45m-\$35m = \$10m

0. 5 Modest Frustration

(H) \$30m-\$35m = -\$5m (I) \$3m (J) \$3. 48m

HBO No Information

(d)(iii) EMVd = (\$26. 5*0. 42)+(\$3*0. 28)+(\$3*0. 3) = \$12. 87m EMV with data whether Morgan will accept to direct and complete film punctually = \$12. 87m EMV with no information concerning whether Morgan will accept to direct and...